下面是小编为大家整理的2020年南亚经济聚焦报告,供大家参考。
T
THE
CURSED
B LES SING OF
PUB LIC
B ANK S
his
r epor t
is
a
joint pr oduct of
the
Office
of
the
Chief
Eco no mist f or the
S outh
Asia
Re - gio n
(SAR CE)
and
the
Ma croeco no mics,
T r a de and
In v estment
(MT I)
Global P r actice . Its
pr epar atio n
was
led
b y
Rober t
Be y er
(Eco no mist, SAR CE)
and
Valerie
A nne
Mer - cer
Bla c kman (S enior Eco no mist, SAR CE)
under
the
o v ersight of
Hans
T immer (Chief
Eco no mist, S outh
Asia
Regio n),
in
c lose
col labor atio n
with Manuela F r ancisco
(P r actice
Manag er , MT I)
and
Z oubida Kher ous
Al la oua
(EFI
S outh
Asia
Regional
Dir ector).
The
cor e
team co nsisted of
S ebastián
F r anco-Bedo ya,
Milagr os
Chocce, Ishita
D ugar , and
R uc heta
S ingh
(al l
SAR CE). S ubstantiv e
co ntr ibutio ns
w er e
made b y
J iemin Ren,
T akahiro
Y ama da, Virgilio
Galdo
(al l
SAR CE) and
b y
T atsiana
Kliatsko va
(F inancial
S ector
S pecialist)
at
the
F inance , Co mpetitiv eness
and
In - no vatio n
Global P r actice
(FCI).
A ndr e w
Bur ns
(L ea d
Eco no mist, MT I),
Benoit P hilippe Mar cel Campagne
(Eco no mist, MT I),
Josep h
Mar iasingham
(Asian
De v elop ment
Bank) and
the
DLW team fr o m
the
P o v er t y
and
Equit y
Global P r actice
pr o vided
data and
tec hnic al
inputs. Bo x
1.1 was pr epar ed b y
Jean
L ee
(S enior Eco no mist, SAR CE)
with co ntr ibutio ns
fr o m
Mahr een
Mahm ud (Univ ersit y
of
O xf or d),
Jo nathan
Mor duc h
(N e w
Y or k
Univ ersit y),
Sar avana
R avindr an (UCL A) and
Abu S ho nc ho y
(F lor ida
Inter natio nal
Univ ersit y).
Bo x
1.4 and
2.2 w er e
pr epar ed b y
Maur izio Bussolo
(L ea d
Eco no mist, SAR CE),
N a yantar a
Sar ma and
Y ue
Zhou
(both
SAR CE),
with co n - tr ibutio ns
fr o m
L aur a
Herr er a
and
S utir tha
Ro y
(both
P o v er t y
and
Equit y
Global P r actice).
Bo x
3.2 was
pr epar ed b y
I lias
S kamnelos
(L ea d
F inancial
S ector
S pecialist,
FCI)
and
S a dia
Afr in
(FCI) and
Bo x
3.4 was
pr epar ed b y
Mar ius
V ismantas
(L ea d
F inancial
S ector
S pecialist,
FCI).
The
r epor t
gr eatl y
benefitted fr o m
inputs
and
co mments
fr o m
Mar ius
V ismantas,
I lias
S kamnelos (both
L ea d
F inancial
S ector
S pecialists,
FCI),
and
A ng ela
P r yg o zh y na (S enior F inancial
S ector S pecialist,
FCI)
under
the
o v ersight
of
Esper anz a
L asagabaster
(P r actice
Manag er , FCI),
fr o m Mar tin
Melec ky
(L ea d
F inancial
S ector
S pecialist,
FCI),
A ndr ej
P opo vic
(S enior F inancial
S ec - tor
S pecialist,
FCI),
and
other
col leagues
in
FCI,
fr o m
L ei
‘S andy ’
Y e
and
other
col leagues
in
the P r ospects
Gr oup (EPGDR),
as
wel l
as
fr o m
G uil lemette S idonie Jaffr in
and
Y utaka Y oshino (both P r ogr am
L ea ders
at
E FI
SAR
Regional
Dir ector).
U seful
co mments
and
sugg estio ns
w er e
also pr o vided
b y
numer ous
col leagues
fr o m
the
Office
of
the
Chief
Eco no mist f or the
S outh
Asia
Re - gio n,
the
Ma croeco no mics,
T r a de and
In v estment
Global P r actice
– inc luding b y
P oo nam
G upta, Ber nar d
Hav en, N azm us
S a dat
Khan, R angeet Gosh,
P ui
S hen
Y oo ng, F lor ian Blum, Go nz alo
J . V ar ela,
Muhammad
W aheed, Melanie S imone T r ost, N y da Mukthar , Kene
Ez emenar i,
D hr uv S har ma, and
T a e
Hyun
L ee
– as
wel l
as
b y
participants of
the
5th
South
A sia
Economic
P o lic y
N et - w or k
Conf e r ence
o n
‘S tate
Inter v entio n
in
F inancial
Mar kets
in
S outh
Asia ’
in
Mumbai,
India.
A u - r elien
Kr use
pr o vided
in valuable
co mments
and
sugg estio ns
thr oughout
and
coor dinated
the
Ma cr o P o v e r t y
O utloo ks
(presented as
Count r y
Br ie f s
in
Chapter
4). Col leagues
pr o viding
inf ormatio n
f or the
Count r y
Br ie f s
include , Melanie S imone T r ost, P ui
S hen Y oo ng, F er nando
Gabr iel
Im,
Kishan Abe ygunawar dana, Mo na P r asa d,
Kene
Ez emenar i,
A dnan Ashr af
Ghumman,
Muhammad
W aheed, R angeet Ghosh,
D hr uv
S har ma, S a y ed Mur taz a
Muz af - far i,
Ber nar d
Hav en, N ayan
Kr ishna Joshi,
F lor ian Blum, P oo nam
G upta,
T a e
Hyun
L ee , T obias Akhtar
Ha que , S ebastian
S a e z,
and
A ur elien
Kr use
(al l
MT I)
under
super visio n
of
Manuela F r an - cisco
(P r actice
Manag er , MT I).
Alejandro
Espinosa at
S o nideas
was
r espo nsible
f or the
la y out,
design,
t y pesetting, and
an a cco m - pan y ing video , and
W il liam
S haw
edited the
c hapters. Elena
Kar aban (S enior Co mm unic atio ns Officer),
Y ann
Doigno n
(Online
Co mm unic atio ns
Officer)
and
A dnan
Javaid
S iddiqi (Co nsultant) at
S outh
Asia
Exter nal
Co mm unic atio ns
coor dinated
the
disseminatio n,
and
N eelam
Cho w dhr y pr o vided
valuable
a dministr ativ e
suppor t.
South
A sia
as use d
in
this
r eport includes A f ghanistan, B angladesh,
Bhutan,
India,
M al - div es,
Nepal, P akistan
and
Sri L ank a.
The
cutoff
date
f or
this
r eport w as April 6,
2020 .
PHO T O
B Y :
PHO T OG R APHERINC OG NIT O /SHUTTERS T OCK
THE
CURSED
B LES SING OF
PUB LIC
B ANK S
5
THE
CURSED
B LES SING OF
PUB LIC
B ANK S
T able
of
contents
Ex e cutiv e
summary
................................ 8
CHAPTE R
1
An
unpr e ce dente d
c risis
.......................... 11
C ontaining
the
he alth
c risis
.................................................................. 12
An
unpr e ce dente d
economic
c risis
..................................................... 16
Pr e-e xisting
vulner abilities
................................................................... 17
E arly
economic
policy
r esponses
........................................................ 26
R ef er ences
........................................................................................... 30
CHAPTE R
2
A
dire
outlook
...................................... 32
A
dr astic do wn w ar d
r evision
of
the
outlook
....................................... 34
South
A sia is aff e cte d
thr ough
multiple channels
............................... 37
De epening
ine quality
.......................................................................... 47
C omplic ate d
policy
challenges
.......................................................... 50
R ef er ences
........................................................................................... 55
T echnic al
Appendix
............................................................................. 56
CHAPTE R
3
Public
banks:
a
cur se d
bles sing
.................. 58
P ublic
se ctor banks
ar e
important
in
South
A sia
................................. 60
Ther e
ar e
good
r e asons
f or and
against
public
banks
......................... 61
P ublic
banks
in
South
A sia ha v e
both
supporte d
and
impe de d dev elopment
....................................................................................... 65
Striking
the
right
balance
going
f orw ar d
............................................ 73
R ef er ences
........................................................................................... 76
T echnic al
Appendix
............................................................................. 78
South
A sia
country
briefs
......................... 82
South
A sia
at
a
glance
............................ 108
THE
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PHO T O
B Y :
P AP AI/SHUTTERS T OCK
THE
CURSED
B LES SING OF
PUB LIC
B ANK S
Ex e cutiv e summary
South
A sia E conomic
F ocus
Spring
2020
The
unpr ecedented C O VI D-19
cr isis
co mes
with a
dir e
eco no mic
outlook. S outh
Asia
might
wel l
experience
its
w orst eco no mic
per f or mance
in
40 y ears,
with at
least
half
of
the
countr ies
fal ling
in
a
deep
r ecessio n.
The
harsh r ealit y
of
in - equalit y
in
S outh
Asia
is
that
poor people
ar e
mor e
likel y
to
beco me infected
with the
cor o navirus,
as
social
distancing is difficult
to
implement f or them.
The y
also
hav e
less
a ccess
to
health
c ar e
or e v en soap , ar e
mor e
likel y
to
hav e
lost
their
job , and
ar e
mor e
vulnerable
to
spikes
in
f ood pr ices.
P ublic
banks,
discussed
in
the
f ocus
c hapter
of
this
editio n,
w er e
at
the
center of
w eaknesses
in
financial
sectors
that
cu - m ulated dur ing r ecent y ears.
Ho w e v er , dur ing this
cr isis,
the y
might
be
par t
of
the
solutio n
b y
pr o viding
counter c y c lical lending to
the
most vulnerable
parts of
the
eco no my .
Chapter
1:
An
unpr e ce dente d
c risis
The
difficult ies in v ol v ed
in
limiting domestic t r ansmission of
C O VI D-19
in
S outh Asia
ar e enor mous. S outh
Asia
has so me of
the
highest populatio n
densities
in
the
w orld, par ticular l y
in
urban ar eas.
This
makes
co ntagio n
easier , especial l y among the
most vulnerable
people:
slum
dw el lers
and
do mestic
migr ant
w or kers.
These
poor people
also
hav e
lo w er
a ccess to
health
ser vices
or e v en to
water
and
soap . The
unf olding economic cr isis is unique
in
se v er al
wa y s.
W hile
nor mal
do wntur ns
ar e
c aused
b y
la c k
of
eff ective
de - mand,
this
cr isis
is
c aused
b y
suppl y
co nstr aints. W hile
t y pic al l y
manufacturing is
the
most c y c lical
par t
of
the
eco no my , this
time
ser vice
sectors
ar e
har dest hit.
W hile
usual l y , GDP
deceler ates
faster
than
co nsumptio n,
as
co nsumers
smooth their
spending o v er
eco no mic
c y c les,
this
time
co nsumptio n
is
fal ling
shar pl y . Mor eo v er , suppl y
disr uptio ns
and
panic
buy - ing c an jeopar diz e
f ood secur it y . The
sudden disappearance
of
ser vice
sector
jobs
a...
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